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A forecast for the April 25 parliamentary elections

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A forecast for the April 25 parliamentary elections

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A forecast for the April 25 parliamentary elections

By Elvi Fundo

Elections are no more than three weeks away. The Renaissance Socialists seek a third term, the New Republic Democrats seek to come to power by running in a separate coalition, but also by announcing an alliance with Ilir Meta’s SMI.

But let’s make a prediction on these elections, based on many public indicators. In all polls, it turns out that almost 60 percent of citizens seem dissatisfied with the government. This attitude is very normal after 8 years, and the figures should have been even higher.

The country was struck by an unheard pandemic in at least 100 years, and by a devastating earthquake, the last of which occurred nearly half a century ago. Both of these events had a significant impact, from the movements of Edi Rama to the strong reactions of Basha. An enraged Basha burned the mandates of the deputies and didn’t enter the local elections of 2019.

After the earthquake on November 26, 2019, Basha put on another mask and returned to institutions. He went from the position “there are no more elections with Edi Rama”, to “we go to the elections with anyone, but we have won them”. Only Luli Basha knows what has changed since then.

On the other hand, even though he was hit by two disasters one after the other, Rama turned them into symbols of his election campaign, i.e. post-earthquake reconstruction and pandemic management. Meanwhile, the behavior of the DP and Basha himself seemed infantile, completely weak in reaction.

Attacks and worthless accusations about the reconstruction, but also about the management of the pandemic, up to the calls not to vaccinate the citizens, or mocking tens of millions of investments euros such as that of Fier, the hospital that was being built by the Turkish government.

Monika Kryemadhi and Lulzim Basha ironically called as a stable a facility where there

will be tens of millions of euros of equipment, which are actually missing in our existing hospitals. Predicting what will happen on April 25 is not very difficult.

This is not because of the polls, but because of what we said above, the perception of the people about the government, where it seems that 60 percent are dissatisfied. But there is another detail: there is a dissatisfaction with the government, but this doesn’t pass directly as a vote in favor of Lulzim Basha.

So if that dissatisfaction with the government is great, Basha and Rama, have a difference of at least 10-12 percent from each other. Even after 8 years in power, the incumbent Prime Minister still enjoys greater support than his rival. Today, after 8 years in power, it shouldn’t have been discussed whether Rama would leave power or not.

Rama should have left now, maybe even shamefully with a deep loss, But this is impossible. Rama has recovered quite a bit of ground, and has used in his favor the two tragedies that Albania has had, the earthquake and the global pandemic, facing a rival without axis and essence like Lulzim Basha.

While Basha tries to say what he said in 2017, but in a different way. He doesn’t arouse enthusiasm at all, no one believes him. Even Edi Rama is not believed so much by Albanians. But the management of 2 serious crises, pandemic and earthquake, can be called positive in the perception of the public, which shows that there is a difference, and therefore Edi Rama leads in every race.

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Lulzim Basha lags behind again, and his only hope is the SMI. So for the DP to secure 60-64 seats alone, and the SMI to get at least 10-12, and so the opposition can win. But this account made by Lulzim Basha and the people close to him, seems a stupid mistake, because of the lies that come from the base, and the way which work the electorate or the structures of the DP.

Basha hopes that there will be a reversal of the results in Korça or Berat, or that he will get more mandates in Elbasan, which seems very difficult. According to simple calculations, it seems that in the north, ie in Kukës, Shkodër, Lezhë and Dibër the opposition, SMI plus DP cannot secure more than 8 seats, also due to the votes they have, or even the small number of seats that have these regions.

Meanwhile, the south has a larger number of seats. The loss in the north, the majority recovers in Vlora and Fier, counting then Korca, Berat and Elbasan, where it is favored. In these regions the current majority has a certain number of seats, 4-5 seats plus, or maybe something more too.

On the other hand, even the result in Durrës is a draw or the majority will lost, again for the latter there are 2-3 safe mandates. Then there is Tirana, the region where will be made the difference, and where the majority of Edi Rama currently has about 18 seats.

Everything seems clear, Edi Rama will have at least 3-5 more seats on the table. This forecast is a calculation made by CNA.al staff regarding the distribution of mandates and votes in the constituencies, but also from what most polls reflect.

But there may be mandates for Tom Doshi of the SDP, or even the Movement for Change of Jozefina Topalli and the Democratic Conviction of Astrit Patozi. But Doshi seems the safest of all. Lulzim Basha and the opposition will waste a lot of votes.

Because the votes that will receive the small parties, will be translated at the end as a vote against Rama and against Basha, and therefore will be less chance for the opposition. One factor that could harm this divided opposition between Basha and Kryemadhi is the votes of the SMI in many constituencies, where in some places it can secure a mandate, and in others not. However, the opposition is entering a divided election, and for everything the blame will fall on Lulzim Basha./CNA.al

Një parashikim për 25 prillin

 

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Editorial/ Does Lulzim Basha represent the change?

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Nga

The electoral campaign of April 25 is revealing for the first time in Albania a different tactic. The campaign strategists at the Democratic Party, have chosen not to play hard with the phrase “Lulzim Basha as Prime Minister”, but with other phrases such as “Do you want change?”, “We need change” etc., sentences that seek the removal of Edi Rama from power, but who hide the name of Basha.

This strategy to use the change as a candidate for Prime Minister and not Lulzim Basha, has come after a long analysis and polls, that were done for the name of Luli Basha in public opinion. The Israelites who have stood by him for more than 1 year and a half read the situation very clearly:Lulzim Basha is not popular in public opinion.

He didn’t inspire confidence, he didn’t say anything about Albanians. For the latter it was just a mannequin, a person often labeled as a public deceiver. The campaign strategists chose to play with the term “change”, but also to soften the scandalous image and avoid Luli’s unstoppable mistakes.

So they prepared everything for him, and the campaign seems to be moving in that direction, that is in the demand for a change of government. In fact, it turns out that most Albanians in every poll demand change, but the part of those who are ready to vote for Luli Basha is very small in relation to what is required.

The DP clearly has a strategy with change as a motto, and after this request it gives us Lulzim Basha as an offer. But does Lulzim Basha represent the change? This is a question that does’nt need a long answer. It is enough to recall that Lulzim Basha was 3 times minister, and then mayor of Tirana and chairman of the Democratic Party.

The last 16 years in Tirana, and all of them in power. He returned to Tirana in 2005, after 12 years of emigration to the Netherlands, where it spent more than a decade to complete a school that requires only 5 years, and this is a fact.

He became Minister of Transport, with the investment scandal in “Nation Road”, and for an abuse of 300 million euros, he was fired. So two years in that post, he couldn’t do anything. It took his followers as a minister, to move forward the project in question.
He was later appointed Foreign Minister, claiming that he opened the doors of Europe to us, but in fact signed an agreement with Greece where he forgave the sea of Albanians.

So he forgave the maritime space of Albania, almost consuming the accusation of national treason. He was then appointed to the post of Minister of Interior, where he was the main person responsible for January 21, when 4 people were killed on the boulevard, after a violent protest by the Socialists.

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Former Prime Minister Sali Berisha took Lulzim Basha under his protection. But imagine a little:we had an Interior Minister, who hid like a coward and couldn’t manage a day of protests in Tirana. As the mayor of Tirana, Luli’s long sleep is already well-known and there is no need for many arguments.

We go to his election as chairman of the DP. A lot can be said here, but it is enough to emphasize a few details. Basha was elected chairman of the Democratic Party in 2013 through a manipulated process.

He couldn’t lead the party and expand local structures, causing divisions at the base, and disrespecting the party statute and selected organs. The local elections were shamefully lost, and there was no reflection, no analysis.

He then invited Ilir Meta for cooperation, but finally made an agreement with Edi Rama and lost the elections of 2017. He was re-elected chairman of the Democratic Party, manipulating the voting result in the formal race against Eduard Selami.
There were completely formal analyzes, the division in the DP deepens, as Basha declared “enemies” those he himself expelled. Then he started the protests after the burning of the mandates of the deputies. Total failure, forgave the local government at the opponent’s table, and boycotted the local elections.

After the earthquake in November 2019, he came out with a new mask, softer and most “western”, and promises change in the DP. Candidate proposals from the base, vetting, etc. But he simply further divided the DP, with a vote that ousted all his favorite candidates.

But all those who were disqualified from the base, were put back on the list, some even paid for the mandate of the deputy.

The decisions of the vetting commission were not implemented. Sale of mandates again in Korça, Durrës, VLorë and Fier. A campaign, where change has been demanded for several weeks, where citizens are violently called to rallies in times of pandemics, an irresponsibility at extreme levels.

And in case anyone thinks that the change is Lulzim Basha let reread the above facts. Those who bring Edi Rama as an argument, must learn that he is in power after he brought Ilir Meta as a change, kept by Lulzim Basha as a change, and now they want to come themselves as a change. None of these three is the change, Lulzim Basha surely not./CNA.al

Editorial/ A është Lulzim Basha ndryshimi?

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English

Electoral bargains/ SMI warns his defeat in the April 25 elections

Publikuar

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Nga

The Socialist Movement for Integration is getting ready to justify losing in the April 25 elections. In conditions when they risk being left only with headquarters but without supporters, simply in buildings with the logo, to justify the loss on April 26, they are already preparing the script.

When we are 10 days away from the parliamentary elections of April 25, SMI exponents have started to denounce what they call electoral bargains. It is strange and ironic to hear this from the SMI, as it is the only political force that no one trusts regarding the elections.

The SMI is behaving every day according to the motto “The thief calls catch the thief!”. But, the absurdity is that the SMI is a thief of votes with evidence, while for those for whom it accuses and qualifies as thieves, there is no evidence but only words.

Today, Endrit Braimllari, the SMI candidate for the Korça Region, has made accusations in a statement to the media against the Minister of Defense Niko Peleshi for election bargaining, together with some of his directors. He has reported Peleshi to SPAK, for the criminal offense “Abuse of duty”, along with several other officials. In the criminal report sent to SPAK, there is no mention of a single piece of evidence, but only empty words.

According to the SMI, now that we are in a time of campaigning, and on the eve of elections,
the state shouldn’t work, shouldn’t invest, rather SPAK should intervene and stop them. And this scandal occurs at a time when President of the Republic Ilir Meta has abandoned his institutional duty, and is appearing as the head of the SMI, campaigning and giving warnings and threats that affect even the diplomatic corps in Albania.

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In these circumstances, the SMI, Braimllari should sue Ilir Meta in SPAK, for whom it is not difficult to find evidence that incriminates him. But, knowing that April 26 will find them losers, Monika Kryemadhi who is known as the formal chairwoman of the SMI, is following the example of Lulzim Basha, making empty lawsuits against various officials, in order to have something to justify on April 26. Below we bring the report of the SMI, where there is no single evidence, filed today in SPAK./CNA.al

Pazaret zgjedhore/ LSI paralajmëron humbjen në 25 Prill

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English

“The thief shouts catch the thief”!/ The SMI scandals with vote theft

Publikuar

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Nga

“The thief shouts catch the thief”! / The SMI scandals with vote theft

The Socialist Movement for Integration, a political party known for its vote theft, is surprising public opinion by denouncing vote theft. And this is exactly what the SMI does, a party that is considered a symbol of envelope and crime, and that today pretends to be a defender of the Albanian vote.

“The wolf changes his hair, but doesn’t forget his habit” says a famous proverb. This aphorism suits the SMI, which today is still run by the same “golf”, which was previously caught stealing votes.

Today, the same man brings out his “puppets” to denounce alleged electoral crimes and opens a portal on the official website of the Presidency to denounce so-called electoral crimes. Moreover, he threatens to cut off the hands of those who will steal the votes on April 25, while a person close to him is using the money of his wife’s company, previously denounced by the leader of the Democratic Party, Lulzim Basha, for buy not only votes, but also cars for gangsters.

Just a few days ago, the police arrested an SMI leader in Puka, with over 5 million Lek inside his car, and with a list of 28 names, accompanied by a demonstration ballot to vote for the SMI. Vasil Shabani was arrested by the police, while the chairman of the SMI in Puka, D.S, is under investigation.

Meanwhile, from the official chairwoman of the SMI, Monika Kryemadhi didn’t make any reaction. But the SMI’s deeds and scandals with vote theft are early. We recall the scandals of 2017. In his parliamentary elections the year, after denouncing vote theft by PJIU leader Shpëtim Idrizi, the CEC opened 64 ballot boxes and after the recount, it turned out that the SMI had stolen more votes from all political parties.

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In the same election, a day before the polls, SMI representatives were apprehended by police with large sums of money in the car and a voter list. Police reported the name of I.B. of the SMI, who was caught in flagrancy the Mesi Bridge in Shkodra.

From Shkodra, bargains with votes from the SMI were discovered in Korça, again in the 2017 elections. The police caught in flagrancy a group of young people distributing money in exchange for votes, on the voting day of June 25, 2017.

We recall that the chairman of the group of SMI councilors in the Municipal Council of Korça, P.M was accompanied in the police station. The latter, as reported by the media, was arrested in 2013 for buying votes for the SMI.

On the same day of the June 25, 2017, elections, police cracked down on another SMI group, which was distributing money and food in exchange for votes. Bargaining with votes in 2017, held by the SMI, was also found in Delvina, where again a group was caught distributing money in exchange for votes.

The geography of selling and buying votes from the SMI in the 2017 elections has extended to Berat, where were included several leaders of the SMI. There are many, many other cases where the SMI has been accused of vote theft. So, the only exclusivity of the SMI is the sale and purchase of votes. If shame and electoral crime had a form, the symbol would be SMI./CNA.al

“Hajduti bërtet kapeni hajdutin”/ Bëmat dhe skandalet e LSI-së, me vjedhjet e votave

 

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